The Sun may poke its head out tomorrow if you are lucky. Watch out for loose wet snow sliding and peeling off solar aspects. With all of the new snow, and the first solar influence, we will likely see some rollerballs, especially near rocks. Stay clear of steep slopes that are getting direct Sun.
The latest round of snow came in heavy and wet. Areas that were sheltered from the wind may be harboring denser new snow that has not bonded yet. The new snow will need time, maybe a few days or more, to bond to some of the older snow surfaces. Storm slabs may still be sensitive to the weight of a person. Use safe protocols in steep terrain.
Look for wind slabs on all aspects. The winds have been gusting out of the South loading Northern aspects with over a foot of new snow. Natural Wind slab avalanches were observed in the Lick Creek drainage Sunday. Check out the observations for more. Today, the winds will be out of the North, loading and creating fresh new wind slabs.
Cross loading occurred also, putting fresh wind slabs in strange places that might suprise you on a variety of aspects and are resting on a variety of old snow surfaces including crusts and other firm layers. Visibility should improve today. You should be able to see areas where the wind has sculpted the snow. Areas with pillows, drifts or textured snow are indicators of wind loading.
Your best and safest bet today is to avoid wind loaded terrain that is steep enough to slide. You will find better skiing and riding conditions and are less likely to trigger avalanches in areas that have been protected from the winds.
Due to the partial government shutdown, avalanche forecasting will be limited. We expect to forecast 3 times a week until the shutdown has ended.
Your observations are very helpful to the PAC staff and help create a better picture of the complex terrain in our advisory area. You can click on the add observations link and add as little or as much detail as you have. It is easy to navigate and will also upload pictures easily. Please contribute to your local forecast by sharing what you see or experience even if it is just good snow. or a trip report.
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
831 PM MST Sun Jan 20 2019
.DISCUSSION...Showers continue to move through the forecast area
this evening, with lightning observed north of Boise earlier.
Forecast generally on track with activity found through the
afternoon hours, especially impacting the ID/NV border. Made a few
tweaks to change some areas after midnight to a rain/snow mention
instead of just rain...mainly impacting the Western Magic Valley.
Models continue to indicate increasing wind Monday afternoon,
especially south and east of Boise in the Treasure and Magic
Valleys. All hazards remain unchanged.
.AVIATION...Mountains obscured. Areas of MVFR and IFR across
higher terrain of southwest Idaho to include the Magic Valley.
Conditions improving across southeast Oregon, north of KBNO-KONO
line and in the Snake Plain west of KTWF/KJER. Will see VFR most
areas after 18Z/Monday. Surface winds NW 5-15kts tonight, but
ramping up to 20-30 kts on Monday with gusts to 40kts. Winds aloft
at 10k feet MSL: northwest 10-20 kts through 12Z/Mon increasing to
40-50 kts after 12z/Mon.
This avalanche advisory is provided through a partnership between the Payette National Forest and the Payette Avalanche Center. This advisory covers the West Central Mountains between Hard Butte on the north and Council Mountain on the south. This advisory applies only to backcountry areas outside established ski area boundaries. This advisory describes general avalanche conditions and local variations always occur. This advisory expires at midnight on the posted day unless otherwise noted. The information in this advisory is provided by the USDA Forest Service who is solely responsible for its content.